For a lot of people right now, the NDIS is starting to feel less like a certainty and more like a question mark. And whatever your politics on that, the practical question underneath is real. If you or your child are moved off the scheme, or never get on it, where does the support actually come from?
This is worth talking about plainly, because the numbers are not small.
The government’s own modelling, confirmed to a Senate committee, points to around 241,000 current participants losing access to the NDIS over the next several years under the reforms. Most of them are children. A large share have autism or developmental delay. On top of that, the plan is to divert many would-be new entrants to other supports rather than the scheme.
The main new destination for kids is a program called Thriving Kids, part of a broader “Foundational Supports” agreement between the Commonwealth and the states, funded at $10 billion over five years. It is aimed at children aged 8 and under with lower support needs. First services are due to start from October 2026, with a full national rollout targeted for the start of 2028.
The tension? The scheme was never meant to be the only door. By its own founding principles, the NDIS was designed to support around 500,000 people out of the millions of Australians with disability, with everyone else served by mainstream and community systems. On paper, moving someone to a more appropriate support is not the same as dropping them. The Prime Minister has said no one will be removed without somewhere else to go.
But the replacement has to actually be there. And as of now, reporting suggests Thriving Kids is running late, not fully built, not user-tested, with at least one state not yet signed on. A large survey of families found four in five thought the change was rushed and worried about kids falling through the cracks. So the gap between “moved to something better” and “dropped” is exactly where people are anxious, and fairly so.
So what do you actually do while all this settles? You get clear on what other doors exist. Depending on your situation and your state, that can mean a Medicare care plan through your GP for some allied health, private health extras, state based schemes, or aged care pathways like Support at Home if age is the issue, plus charity and community programs. None of these are the NDIS, and none of this is advice from me. They are starting points to check with the actual provider or scheme, but knowing they exist is half the battle when the ground is moving.
The thing I care about here is that nobody should have to find this out by accident, or by paying someone to tell them. Clear information about your options should be something you can just get. I’ll also say, for what it’s worth, I’d prefer the NDIS to just support people with disability properly.
If you need a starting point for finding funds, we’ve put a really simple Fund Finder together.
References
- The Guardian (28 May 2026) and Senate Estimates — the 241,000 projected exits
- health.gov.au Thriving Kids Q&A and fact sheet
- National Agreement on Foundational Supports 2026-2031
- Review of the NDIS Act 2013 (s.31) — the founding intent that the NDIS is not meant to replace other systems
- The Saturday Paper (1 Aug 2026) and the CYDA survey — delivery concerns
- health.gov.au — Support at Home
This piece signposts options only and gives no personal financial or NDIS advice.